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In this myth-busting book Nouriel Roubini shows that everything we think about economics is wrong. Financial crises are not unpredictable 'black swans', but an inherent part of capitalism. Only by remaking our financial systems to acknowledge this, can we get out of the mess we're in. Will there be another recession, and if so what shape? When will the next bubble occur? And what can we do about it? Here Roubini gives the answers, and lists his commandments for the future.

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　　Nouriel Roubini has served as a senior adviser to the White

House Council of Economic Advisers and the US Treasury Department

and consultant to the World Bank and IMF. As early as 2005, Roubini

speculated that house prices would soon sink the economy and in

2006, warned the IMF that the United States was likely to face a

catastrophic housing bust resulting in deep recession. Back then he

was nicknamed 'Dr Doom' by the New York Times. In hindsight,

economists have called him a prophet. Roubini is professor of

economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and

co-founder and chairman of RGE Monitor, a web-based economic

consultancy firm. He speaks English, Farsi, Italian and Hebrew.

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Aldous Huxley once observed that "the charm of history and its enigmatic lesson consist in the fact that, from age to age, nothing changes and yet everything is completely different." While the recent crisis shared much in common with past crises, many of its causes were unique, or at the very least, they played a bigger role in the twenty-first-century global financial system than they did in the past.

Marx's ideas, which are far more sophisticated than this precis suggests, remain controversial. But what matters here is that Marx was the first thinker to see capitalism as inherently unstable and prone to crisis. In his estimation, capitalism is chaos incarnate; it will inevitably plunge into the abyss, taking the economy with it......his larger point -- that crisis is endemic to capitalism -- is a hugely imporntant insight: after Marx, economists had to reckon with the posiibility that capitalism contains the seeds of its own demise.

Keynes realized: in a collapse like the Great Depression, the "animal spirits" of capitalism, the "spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction," would wither away, he thought, even when there were profits to be made. Keynes recognized that economic decision making isn't merely a rational mathmatical calculus; it is impulsive and conditioned by events, uncertain and contingent. "If the animal spirits are dimmed and the spontaneous optimism falters," he observed, "leaving us to depend on nothing but a mathematical expectation, enterprise will fade and die."

Accoring to Minsky, instability originates in the very financial institutions that make capitalism possible. "Implicit in [Keynes's] analysis," he wrote, "is a view that the capitalist economy is fundamentally flawed. This flaw exists because the financial system necessary for capitalist vitality and vigor -- which translates entrepreneurial animal spirits into effective demand for investment -- contains the potential for runaway expectation, powered by an investment boom." This runaway expansion, Minsky explained, can readily grind to a halt because "accumulated financial changes render the financial system fragile."

If Keynes advanced a version of capitalism that might occasionally become imbalanced (but could readily be stabilized with government intervention), Schumpeter believed instability to be the necessary consequence of the kind of innovation that made capitalism possible in the first place.

Instead of letting weak, overleveraged banks, corporations, and even households perish in a burst of creative destruction, thereby allowing the strong to survive and thrive, governments around the world have meddled, creating an economy of the living dead: zombie banks that cling to life with endless lines of credit from central banks; zombie firms like General Motors and Chrysler that depend on government ownership for their continued survival; and zombie households across the United States, kept alive by legislation that keeps creditors at bay and that spares them from losing homes they could not afford in the first place.

编辑推荐

　　In this myth-busting book Nouriel Roubini shows that

everything we think about economics is wrong. Financial crises are

not unpredictable 'black swans', but an inherent part of

capitalism. Only by remaking our financial systems to acknowledge

this, can we get out of the mess we're in. Will there be another

recession, and if so what shape? When will the next bubble occur?

And what can we do about it? Here Roubini gives the answers, and

lists his commandments for the future.

书籍介绍

In this myth-busting book Nouriel Roubini shows that everything we think about economics is wrong. Financial crises are not unpredictable 'black swans', but an inherent part of capitalism. Only by remaking our financial systems to acknowledge this, can we get out of the mess we're in. Will there be another recession, and if so what shape? When will the next bubble occur? And what can we do about it? Here Roubini gives the answers, and lists his commandments for the future.